And the nominees for a Tony Award won’t include “Spider Man” by Kevin M. Thomas


Tony Award nominations come out on May 3 and there will likely be a few surprises mixed in with some safe choices. But no matter what the result is, the Tony race will between only 14 shows in the musical categories.

The cutoff is April 28 and not all of the shows have opened. So some of these predictions are based upon buzz mixed in with rulings made by the Tony committee. In fact, there’s one more meeting of the committee before the nominations, so don’t be surprised if perhaps one of my featured performers ends up in a lead category (and vice versa).

Additionally, since I make it a point to see every musical, I am opting not to predict nominees for plays as I have seen so few.

I also will be interested to see what will come of Best Revival of a Musical. There are only two possible contenders: “Anything Goes” and “How to Succeed in Business.” They both are worthy but will they make a ruling they both will compete,  just pick a winner from the two or even skip the category.

Some of my favorite shows have left Broadway. While I hope the Tony nominating committee remembers “Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson” and “The Scottsboro Boys,” often when a show closes they are forgotten come awards’ season.  And while it’s making $1 million a week in previews, “Spider Man” is not eligible for consideration this year as it hasn’t opened…previews give them opportunities to make changes. Think of it as a rough draft and when the final version opens, then it can be possibly nominated.

I also had trouble coming up with a fifth nominee for featured actor. There were too many to squeeze in the category – so let’s see who ends up on top.

With all that being said, here’s who I think will be nominated in the major musical categories…not my personal choices, just Tony nomination predictions. See if I am right on May 3 by going to

The Book of Mormon
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla Queen of the Desert

CLOSE CALL: Rain, Sister Act, People in the Picture
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson and Scottsboro Boys

Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
Andrew Rannels, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Aaron Tveit, Catch Me if You Can
Benjamin Walker, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
CLOSE CALL: Daniel Radcliff, How to Succeed in Business; Will Swenson, Priscilla; Joshua Henry, Scottsboro Boys; Joel Grey, Anything Goes

Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
Beth Level, Baby It’s You
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Sherie Rene Scott, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
CLOSE CALL:  Janet Dacal, Wonderland

Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me if You Can (lead?)
John Cullum, The Scottsboro Boys
John McMartin, Anything Goes
Rory O’Malley, The Book of Mormon
?? John Larroqutte, How to Succeed in Business
CLOSE CALL: Tom Wopat, Catch Me if You Can; Chip Zien, People in the Picture; Nick Adams, Priscilla; Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys; one of the guys from Wonderland

Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business
Kerry Butler, Catch Me if You Can (lead?)
Victoria Clark, Sister Act (lead?)
Kate Shinkle, Wonderland
CLOSE CALL: Patti Lupone, Women on the Verge; Karen Mason, Wonderland